Meta is developing a standalone prediction-market app, internally code-named Arena, that will let users guess at the outcome of news events and trending topics, NPR reported. The company first considered acquiring the prediction-market platform Kalshi — Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi’s chief executive last year — but the talks did not advance, according to the report.

Unlike Kalshi and its larger rival Polymarket, which take wagers in real money, Arena will use “play money”: users would receive a daily allotment of points or tokens rather than betting cash.

Positioned outside the CFTC, for now

The design also has regulatory implications. As long as no real money changes hands, the app stays outside the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the U.S. agency that oversees derivatives markets. Daniel Wallach, a gaming lawyer, told NPR that launching without real-money wagering gives Meta room to pursue licenses while a contested legal landscape settles.

That landscape is unsettled. Real-money prediction markets have drawn dozens of lawsuits, and on June 10, 2026, the CFTC proposed rules that would bar contracts tied to war, assassinations and terrorism while potentially allowing wagers on sporting events.

Why Meta's scale matters

Meta’s main advantage is distribution: it can place Arena in front of an ecosystem with billions of daily users, a reach no standalone prediction market can match. Reports of Meta’s entry coincided with share-price dips for betting-adjacent companies such as DraftKings and Robinhood, reflecting concern about its disruptive potential.

Analysts are divided on the effect. Meta could squeeze incumbents such as Polymarket and Kalshi, but by introducing large numbers of people to the idea of betting on events, it could also enlarge a still-niche market those companies could later tap.

The Kalshi connection

Meta and Kalshi are not strangers. In March, the two struck a partnership to integrate Kalshi’s markets into Threads, Meta’s text-based social app — a tie-up that now sits alongside Meta’s plans to build a product of its own.